Inerrancy: A Snowball’s Chance
December 4th, 2008 | 36 Comments
(A preliminary note to the reader: Different believers use different definitions of the term “inerrancy.” When I use that term below I am referring to the hypothesis that the Bible contains no factual errors or contradictions of any kind, scientific or otherwise. If you accept that the Bible contains scientific errors, but consider these to be accommodations to the ignorance of the original author and audience, I do not consider you an inerrantist for the purposes of this post.)
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If you have read many online debates on the topic of Biblical inerrancy, you may have noticed as I have that they typically go something like this:
Errantist: The Bible isn’t inerrant. It claims that the value of pi is 3, when we all know it’s 3.14159… etc.
Inerrantist: It does no such thing.
Errantist: Yes, it does. Look right here in 1 Kings 7:23. It says Solomon had a circular “Sea” built that was 10 cubits across and “took a line of 30 cubits to measure around it.” That means its circumference was 30 cubits, and its diameter was 10 cubits, and the ratio of the one to the other was therefore 3. But we know that the ratio of a circle’s circumference to its diameter (that is, pi) is about 3.14. Hence, an error. Q.E.D.
Inerrantist: Big deal, the author could have been rounding down. Pi has an infinite number of digits, so you would have to round at some point.
Errantist: If the author had said the line was “about 31 and a half cubits,” or even 31 cubits, you’d have a point. But rounding to the tens? That’s ridiculous.
Inerrantist: Alright, even if he wasn’t rounding, don’t forget that the Sea was a handbreadth in thickness (see verse 26). So if they were measuring the interior circumference of the Sea, there’s no error.
Errantist: Why on earth would they measure the interior circumference? And even if they were reporting the interior circumference, why would they then report the exterior diameter? Face it, it’s an error; simple as that.
Inerrantist: Even if you’re right, there’s another solution. Verse 26 clearly says that the rim flared outward, like a lily. They could have measured the diameter from rim to rim, but measured the circumference lower down around the Sea.
Errantist: This is getting absurd. It’s an error.
Inerrantist: It is not.
Errantist: Is!
Inerrantist: ISN’T!
Errantist: IT IS TOO AN ERROR AND KNUCKLE DRAGGING MOUTH-BREATHERS LIKE YOU ALLOWED HITLER TO COME TO POWER!!
Inerrantist: Hah! Godwin’s Law! I win!!
What our dueling antagonists above are failing to accept, indeed, failing to see, most likely, is that they are arguing as if they were talking about certainties rather than probabilities. Each is insisting that his position is 100% certain, when in fact there is some amount of uncertainty in either position. The actual probability that the Bible affirms 3 as the value of pi lies somewhere between 0 and 1. The real question is where along that scale the probability lies. The inerrantist is correct that there are multiple ways of reading the passage in question so that the Bible is not affirming that pi = 3. The errantist is correct that none of these readings come from a plain reading of the text, and all of them require a stretching of the imagination, if not the text itself. Nevertheless, for just about any apparent error or contradiction one can find in the Bible, there is some likelihood that it is only apparent, and not genuine.
At first blush, this may seem to be a boon to the inerrantist. In fact, they seem to think so themselves, since I have seen inerrantists post harmonizations of apparent errors and contradictions in the Bible with disclaimers along the following lines: “We do not claim to have proven the Bible inerrant with our defense of these passages. However, that is not our burden. Our burden is simply to demonstrate that it is possible to read the passages in such a way that they do not contradict one another or our current scientific understanding of the cosmos.” But that dodges a big responsibility. It may be possible to read the passages that way, but how probable is it that that is the right way to read them? Is it 99% probable? 50%? 1%? Surely the answer to that question should weigh in our decision to accept or reject Biblical inerrancy. After all, there’s a chance I’ll be killed in a horrible traffic accident today, but I’m going to get in the car anyway.
Now let’s take a brief detour through some elementary probability theory. Suppose I were to show you a fair coin and ask how likely it is that when I flip the coin, it will land heads up? I’m sure you could answer without hesitation. Everyone knows that if I flip a fair coin many times, it will tend to land heads about as often as tails. In probability parlance, we say that there is a 50% probability of the coin landing heads up. Now what if I were to ask how likely it is that if I flip the coin twice, heads will come up both times? In this case, I’m asking about the likelihood of two independent events occurring. In probability parlance, this is called a joint probability. And most readers probably know that the joint probability of two events occurring is the probability of the first event occurring times the probability of the second event occurring. In the case of my fair coin, flipping heads twice in a row has a joint probability of 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25, or 25%. In general, if an event has a probability of occurring, p, the probability that it will occur n times in n trials is p to the nth power, or p^n.
Now we can see that things have gotten stickier for the inerrantist, because his position that the Bible is inerrant is actually the combination of a set of positions, namely that each and every verse in the Bible is correct. That is, his position does not stand simply because he can show that this or that passage has a high probability of not containing an error. Rather, he must be able to show that any passage that contains an apparent error is, in fact, highly likely to be accurate. And more than that, he must be able to show that the joint probability that all of the passages contain no errors is high as well. There is some probability that the Bible is inerrant, and it is necessarily the joint probability that each passage from Genesis 1:1 to Revelation 22:21 contains no errors. And there are quite a few passages that contain some apparent errors.
How many? Well, let’s ask some inerrantists. Norm Geisler and Thomas Howe have written a book entitled The Big Book of Bible Difficulties. And big it is! It’s over 600 pages long and “offers answers to over 800 questions often raised by skeptics, critics and cults.” For ease in the math, let’s forget the “over” and just call it 800. Now suppose Geisler and Howe were able to give really convincing answers to all of these questions. In fact, let’s say that in every case Geisler and Howe could convince an open-minded skeptic that there was a 95% probability that the passage in question contained no errors. How big is the likelihood that the Bible is inerrant, that not one of those passages actually contains an error? Miniscule. Remember that this is a joint probability, equal to p^n. Our open-minded skeptic says that p = 0.95, and Geisler and Howe have already told us that n = 800. A little quick math gives us 0.95^800 = 1.15 x 10^-18. In plain English, that means the odds are about 662 quadrillion to one against inerrancy.
What if Geisler and Howe go back and do some more research, and are now able to convince our skeptic that the probability of accuracy is 99% in every case? Now we have 0.99^800 = 0.00032, or about 0.03%. In this case the odds are around 3,100 to one against inerrancy. That’s a big improvement, but it’s still not very convincing. And if they do even more research, and convince the skeptic that there is a 99.9% probability of accuracy in each disputed passage? Well, now the chances of inerrancy are a little less than fifty-fifty: 44.9%, to be precise.
At the very least, then, it behooves the inerrantist to be very, very humble in his stance that the Bible contains no errors. True, if he considered the probability to be 99.99% that any given error is only apparent, and not genuine, then he could boost the joint probability of inerrancy (in his mind, at least) to a little better than 92%, which is pretty high. But let’s get serious. 99.99% confidence would mean that only 1 in 10,000 such apparent errors would be genuine. If I gave you 10,000 ancient texts apparently misreporting the value of pi, would you say only one of them is actually in error, and the others have perfectly valid explanations? Not likely.
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Note from Steve: This post was submitted by a guest blogger who goes by the snappy pseudonym “Guest Blogger”. I hope to hear more from this interesting guy. Make sure you leave some feedback!
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December 4th, 2008
Tags: Bibliology, Inerrancy

